CPI Cools, PPI Pending: Rate Risk Eases as AI Faces a Profit Test
July CPI cooled slightly, reducing immediate pressure for a September rate increase. The 08:30 ET PPI release will test business input costs. Risk assets have breathing room, not an inflation all-clear.
August 13, 2026Pre-market · 07:05 ET / 19:05 HKTStyle reference: premium-dark-editorial-finance-cards / U41
Market snapshot
7,748.50S&P 500 · +0.3%
4.68%U.S. 10-year yield
$87.81Brent · -$1.17
159.37USD/JPY
+1.2%Nikkei 225
+3.6%Kospi
July U.S. PPI had not been released at publication time. No forecast is presented as an actual result.
01Macro | CPI was the first test
Fact
July CPI rose 0.1% monthly and 3.4% annually; core CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.5% annually. PPI is due at 08:30 ET. June PPI fell 0.3% monthly but remained 5.5% higher annually; the measure excluding food, energy and trade services rose 5.1%.
Market impact · inference
Cooler CPI lowers immediate rate pressure. Hot PPI would revive margin and pass-through concerns; a soft print supports bonds and long-duration assets.
Counter-risk · view
One CPI report remains sensitive to gasoline and shelter. Even benign PPI would not prove that August's energy shock has disappeared.
02Rates and FX | A 4.68% long yield still constrains valuations
Fact
September hike odds fell from roughly 50% to 40%. The 10-year yield eased from 4.70% to 4.68%, still above 3.97% before the Iran war. USD/JPY was 159.37 and EUR/USD about 1.1526. The United States and Japan recently intervened jointly to support the yen.
Market impact · inference
Front-end rates track data; the long end also prices energy, fiscal risk and term premium. Soft PPI may pressure the dollar and yields, while yen intervention risk rises near 160.
Counter-risk · view
A 40% probability is not a no-hike signal. Hot PPI, retail sales or oil could restore the tail risk quickly.
03Equities | Record-adjacent U.S. stocks, concentrated chip appetite
Fact
The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq gained 0.5% and the Russell 2000 added 0.6%. The Nikkei rose 1.2% and the Kospi jumped 3.6%; Samsung Electronics gained 4.9% and SK Hynix rose 9%. The Hang Seng fell 0.2% and Shanghai lost 0.5%.
Market impact · inference
Risk appetite is concentrated in the AI supply chain and selected smaller companies. Benign PPI could extend the semiconductor rebound; a yield reversal would pressure multiples.
Counter-risk · view
Korea's sharp gains include positioning and index-concentration effects and do not by themselves prove faster global demand.
04Energy and housing | Oil relief, tight real-economy finance
Fact
WTI fell $1.18 to $82.08 and Brent lost $1.17 to $87.81. Long-term mortgage rates reached a one-year high. D.R. Horton fell 3.3%, PulteGroup lost 2.5%, and Builders FirstSource dropped 3.6%.
Market impact · inference
Lower oil eases inflation expectations, but housing shows that financial conditions have not genuinely loosened. Transport and consumers benefit; high mortgage rates weigh on transactions, materials and builders.
Counter-risk · view
Oil remains driven by shipping and negotiation headlines. A demand-led decline would not necessarily help cyclicals or credit.
05Industry | AI shifts from demand to profit conversion
Fact
Super Micro Computer rose 19% after quarterly EPS beat expectations by 84%. CoreWeave gained 19.3% on better revenue and a milder loss; Nvidia rose 3%. Supermicro had disclosed more than $60 billion of new fourth-quarter orders for delivery over future quarters.
Market impact · inference
Demand for compute, servers, networks and power remains strong, but investors are separating revenue from margins, interest burden and cash generation.
Counter-risk · view
Orders are not current revenue or free cash flow. Financing, concentration, delivery and depreciation can erode returns.
06Company | Applied Materials tests the manufacturing layer
Fact
The company reports at 16:30 ET. Guidance calls for $8.95 billion of revenue, plus or minus $500 million, and non-GAAP EPS of $3.36, plus or minus $0.20. Consensus is about $9.01 billion and $3.39. Last-quarter Semiconductor Systems revenue was $5.965 billion, with DRAM at 29%.
Market impact · inference
The report tests whether AI spending is spreading into DRAM, advanced logic and advanced packaging equipment. Forward guidance, gross margin and China exposure matter most.
Counter-risk · view
Equipment orders can be pulled forward; strong revenue may reflect delivery timing. Export controls and customer concentration amplify volatility.
Next week: watchlist and risks
- Today, 08:30 ET: July U.S. PPI.
- Today, 16:30 ET: Applied Materials results.
- August 14: U.S. retail sales and consumer sentiment.
- August 18: U.S. import and export prices.
- August 21: U.S. state employment data.
- Persistent: Hormuz shipping, yen intervention, AI financing and delivery, and long yields.