DAILY FINANCE · 08.2901
Main Theme

Hawkish credibility, repriced

The speech gave no path, but markets heard a clear message: rates can rise if inflation fails to cool.

4.36%U.S. 2-year yield
4.72%U.S. 10-year yield
50%–58%Range of September hike odds
−3.19%Spot gold, one day
Counter-risk: the speech was not a hike commitment. Jobs, inflation and oil can still change the September decision.
Verified through 08:30 ETNot investment advice
DAILY FINANCE · 08.2902
Macro and Central Banks

Front-end rates moved first; the dollar confirmed

The larger move at the front of the curve points to near-term policy repricing, not only long-run fiscal risk.

about 4.22%2-year yield before the speech
about 4.36%2-year yield near the close
about 99.6Dollar index
about 160USDJPY
Inference: higher real rates and a stronger dollar hit non-yielding and liquidity-sensitive trades first.
August 28 closeNot investment advice
DAILY FINANCE · 08.2903
Markets and Industries

AI profits held; valuations split

Leaders delivered real revenue, while small caps and high-expectation suppliers absorbed the rate and delivery shock.

$96.2BNVIDIA quarterly revenue
+22.6%Salesforce on Thursday
−10.3%Marvell on Friday
−1.39%Russell 2000 on Friday
Takeaway: growth, margin and a positive expectations gap must arrive together. An AI label is no longer enough.
August 28 closeNot investment advice
DAILY FINANCE · 08.2904
Next Week and Risks

Jobs and AI face two more gates

Vacancies, manufacturing and payrolls test macro resilience; custom chips and networking test the earnings story.

Sep 1 · 10:00 ETJOLTS and ISM Manufacturing: vacancies, orders, jobs and prices.
Sep 2 · After CloseBroadcom results: custom AI chips, networking and software demand.
Sep 3 · 08:30 ETRevised productivity and unit labor costs.
Sep 4 · 08:30 ETU.S. jobs report; poll estimate: 58,000 payroll gains.
Weekend risk: shifting Strait of Hormuz headlines could make oil and rates gap higher together.
Official calendars verifiedNot investment advice