Resilient growth, sticky inflation and AI earnings
raise the rate hurdle

Market snapshot

Cutoff: 07:10 ET. U.S. 08:30 ET releases were pending. Premarket prices are not closing returns.

1U.S. GDP: slower headline, stronger private demand

Fact: Second-quarter real GDP stayed at a 1.5% annualized rate versus 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers was revised from 3.9% to 4.2%; real GDI rose 2.2% and corporate profits increased by $400.9 billion. Annualized quarterly core PCE inflation was revised to 3.6%.

Market impact | Inference: The economy's core looks stronger than the aggregate headline, supporting earnings but reducing confidence in rapid rate cuts.

Counter-risk: GDP is backward-looking and revisable. Imports, government spending and weaker subsequent jobs data could change the conclusion.

BEA: second estimate · BEA: GDP data · BEA: releases · AP: market response

2Real consumption stalled; core PCE held at 3.3%

Fact: July income, disposable income and nominal PCE rose 0.4%, 0.5% and 0.2%. Real PCE increased less than 0.1%. Headline and core PCE inflation were 3.7% and 3.3% year over year; the saving rate was 3.0%. Services spending rose $86.2 billion while goods spending fell $49.9 billion.

Market impact | Inference: Spending volume cooled, but the income buffer and sticky core inflation keep rates and the dollar sensitive to data surprises.

Counter-risk: Income can flow into later consumption or savings, with opposite growth and inflation effects. Annual revisions remain ahead.

BEA: income and outlays · BEA: PCE index · BEA: economy overview · New York Fed: calendar

3AI chip results cleared a high bar

Fact: NVIDIA reported $96.221 billion of revenue, up 106% year over year. Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117%; non-GAAP EPS was $2.22 and gross margin was 75.0%. Next-quarter revenue guidance was $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, excluding China Data Center compute revenue, with about 74.0% gross margin. Shares were reported about 7.2% higher premarket.

Market impact | Inference: Compute demand is accelerating and benefits spread to Asian suppliers. Financing quality, margin and cash returns are the next tests.

Counter-risk: Guidance is not realized revenue, margin is expected to edge down, and planned third-party financing above $500 billion remains subject to definitive agreements.

Company release · Investor relations · AP · Axios

4Bank of Korea delivers a second hike to 3.00%

Fact: The board voted 6-1 to raise the Base Rate by 25 basis points. It lifted 2026 and 2027 growth forecasts from 2.6% and 2.1% to 3.3% and 2.9%, while raising both years' core inflation forecasts to 2.5%. July headline and core CPI were 2.8% and 2.6%; housing and household-credit pressure remained elevated.

Market impact | Inference: Chip exports and investment give policymakers room to address inflation and leverage. The won and front-end yields gain support, but household and property financing costs rise. The Kospi still gained 1.5%.

Counter-risk: One member dissented. A reversal in oil, foreign exchange or the chip cycle could slow further tightening.

Bank of Korea: decision · Bank of Korea: resources · Reuters via Investing.com · AP

5Chinese industrial profits grew, but breadth weakened

Fact: January-July industrial profits rose 17.6% to CNY 4.582 trillion. July growth slowed from 15.1% to 11.2%. Electronics profits jumped 110% and high-tech manufacturing rose 50.1%, while autos fell 20.4% and ferrous-metal smelting dropped 51.2%. Inventories and receivables increased 10.8% and 8.5%.

Market impact | Inference: AI and raw-material chains drove the improvement, while broad demand remained weak. Shanghai gained 0.6% and Hong Kong lost 0.4%.

Counter-risk: Base effects, prices and concentration flatter the headline. Slower electronics exports could pull aggregate profit growth down quickly.

National Bureau of Statistics · Government English summary · First-half comparison · AP

6Global equities did not celebrate together

Fact: Korea and Taiwan rose 1.5% and 0.5%, while Japan fell 0.2%. Hong Kong lost 0.4% and Shanghai added 0.6%. In early Europe, the United Kingdom and France fell 0.5% and 0.8%, while Germany edged 0.2% higher. S&P futures gained about 0.5%; Dow futures were nearly flat.

Market impact | Inference: The AI benefit concentrated in direct supply chains. Europe and less tech-heavy markets remained constrained by growth, energy and rates.

Counter-risk: Europe had not closed and U.S. numbers were futures. The 08:30 ET data could change direction; one-day divergence may be positioning.

AP: market snapshot · Company release · Bank of Korea · New York Fed

7Jackson Hole opens; the reaction function is the risk

Fact: The August 27-29 symposium is themed “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.” The agenda is due at 20:00 ET today, and the Federal Reserve Chair speaks at 10:00 ET on August 28. Jobless claims at 08:30 ET were pending at cutoff.

Market impact | View: With core PCE at 3.3%, private demand at 4.2% and strong AI investment, markets need clarity on how policy weighs growth, inflation and financial stability.

Counter-risk: The official theme emphasizes payments and infrastructure, so the speech may offer little near-term rate guidance.

Kansas City Fed: announcement · Federal Reserve: calendar · Symposium overview · New York Fed: data calendar

Editorial conclusion

U.S. private demand, AI earnings and Asian export growth all show resilience. They support profits while raising the hurdle for lower risk-free rates. The immediate benefit is concentrated in the AI supply chain; the cross-asset test is whether earnings can continue to outrun the discount rate.

Daily Finance prepared this briefing from public information available through August 27, 2026 at 07:10 ET. Intraday prices and expectations can change. Inferences and views are not facts. For information only; not investment, legal, tax or other professional advice.