DAILY FINANCE · AUG 22, 202601 / 04
Today’s Main Theme

Growth Is Strong
Bonds Are Unconvinced

PMI 56.0
10Y ≈ 4.74%

Services lifted U.S. composite activity to a four-year high. Stocks rebounded Friday, but long yields and oil still raise the valuation and inflation hurdles.

Fact: Activity ExpandsRisk: Higher Discount Rate
Facts and inferences separatedNot investment advice
MACRO & CENTRAL BANKS02 / 04
Multiple Price Signals

Oil Lifts Inflation
A Weak Dollar Lifts Scarcity

Brent $92.67
DXY ≈ 98.8

Brent rose for a sixth day. The dollar fell for the week as gold and bitcoin gained. Markets are pricing energy, fiscal term premium, and purchasing-power risk together.

Gold: Three-Month HighCounter-Risk: Crowding
Prices as of August 21Continuous markets vary by time
MARKETS & INDUSTRIES03 / 04
A Bounce Is Not a Pivot

Technology Lags
Value Retail Wins

Nasdaq −2.1%
Ross Comp +10%

Major indexes rose Friday but fell for the week. Traffic improved at off-price and warehouse retailers, yet refunds and gasoline mean earnings quality must be separated from headlines.

Traffic and MembershipDo Not Annualize One-Offs
Earnings support vs high ratesWatch consumer bifurcation
WEEK AHEAD & RISKS04 / 04
August 25–29

Three Tests
Arrive Together

GDP / PCE
Chips / Central Banks

Consumer confidence arrives Tuesday. GDP, PCE, and major chip earnings land Wednesday. The global central-bank symposium follows Thursday through Saturday.

Data Can Be RevisedHigh Expectations Raise Risk
Use ?card=N for one cardDaily Finance