Rate cushion
meets oil tail risk
Weak hiring lowered Treasury yields. Weekend attacks and pressure around two energy corridors put inflation risk back in front of Monday's open.
First check Monday
Energy futures, shipping insurance and haven currencies will show whether a claim has become a tradable supply disruption.
After weak jobs,
CPI is the referee
Softer employment lowers the urgency to tighten. Wages and energy costs still deny the market an automatic dovish pivot.
Benign inflation
Supports a rate hold and extends the cushion for duration.
Hot inflation
Lifts yields and the dollar, testing yen intervention again.
Record highs face
a cost test
Technology and small caps rose together. Energy costs and AI infrastructure earnings now test the quality of that breadth.
Two AI checkpoints
- August 11: rented compute — revenue quality, capital intensity and financing.
- August 13: chip equipment — backlog, cleanrooms and advanced packaging.
Look past the label
Orders are not free cash flow. Debt costs, customer concentration and export controls can separate revenue from profit.
Five-day clock,
four risk classes
First see whether weekend headlines enter prices; then test AI spending, consumer inflation, business costs and demand.
- Mon, Aug 10 | Oil, product cracks, shipping insurance
- Tue, Aug 11 | CoreWeave second-quarter results
- Wed, Aug 12 | U.S. CPI: services, shelter, energy
- Thu, Aug 13 | U.S. PPI + Applied Materials
- Fri, Aug 14 | U.S. retail sales
Relief path
Limited damage, diplomatic progress and benign core inflation.
Stress path
Shipping or output loss, an oil jump and hotter core services.